Atlantic Canada housing activity forecast to rise

So far in 2010, Mathieu Fournier's small Moncton home building company has matched last year's 12 homes and the president of Alltrim Inc. says the fall is looking up.

'The fall is looking quite promising,' says Mathieu Fournier, president of Alltrim Inc.

"My numbers are the same, if not better," said Fournier, whose company focuses on single family homes.

"The fall is looking quite promising," he said. "The winter is coming and usually there's a mad dash in the fall and it slows down in the winter."

Alltrim Inc.'s numbers and outlook for 2010 fall in line with the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.'s forecast for the city in its third-quarter 2010 Housing Market Outlook, released Tuesday.

The national housing agency predicts that the Hub City will see 1,080 housing starts by the end of 2010, versus the 973 starts in 2009, while Saint John builders are expected to have started putting up 670 housing units in 2010, a small increase over the 659 last year; the organization did not review Fredericton, choosing to evaluate New Brunswick cities that are census metropolitan areas according to Statistics Canada.

Sales of existing homes through the Multiple Listing Service are expected to drop by the end of 2010 in New Brunswick to 6,750 from 7,000 in 2009.

The president of the company behind Saint John's largest residential project says that overall, the city's housing market is "quite healthy."

John Rocca's Rocca Group has an interest in the Harbourfront Residences at Three Sisters, through the Ellerdale Group (of which he is also president) developing the 81-unit condominium.

"In terms of condos, this is definitely the largest, probably the largest in the province," he said.

The real estate arm of the Rocca Group, which specializes in apartments and condominiums, put up 70 units in 2008, 52 units last year and this year started the 81 units that should be complete by next summer, with a second 61-unit phase of the condominium dependent on market demand, Rocca said.

Across Atlantic Canada, housing activity is forecast to rise close to seven per cent in 2010 compared to 2009, with the economy showing moderate growth overall.

Single-housing starts across the region are expected to grow nine per cent in 2010 as the economy builds momentum and low vacancy rates and demographic trends related to an aging population should mean multiple starts rise close to five per cent by the end of the year.

Nationally, housing starts should moderate in the second half of the year to total 184,900 in 2010, while in 2011, housing starts should decline to 176,900.

Overall for Canada, 463,800 Multiple Listing Service sales are expected in 2010, followed by 456,000 in 2011.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.'s Atlantic Canada economist, Alex MacDonald, says the New Brunswick housing market has performed "quite well" so far in 2010, but that things will slow down during the second half of the year.

This month, Statistics Canada unemployment insurance numbers for Saint John and Moncton showed increases in the number of beneficiaries: the Port City counted 2,460 people on EI in June 2010 versus the same month last year - up about 26 per cent - while Moncton's total number on unemployment insurance rose by nearly five per cent.

MacDonald said employment outlook factors into his organization's forecast for 2011, which he said should see marginally positive growth.

"The biggest concerns going forward, as they are everywhere else, is what's going to be the income growth and the job creation?"

In 2011, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. expects housing starts to be down in New Brunswick by 50 from forecast 2010 numbers to 3,650, while Multiple Listing Service sales are expected to further decline year-over-year to 6,675.

nbbusinessjournal.com